← Validation Lab
v0.17 Robustness ↗v0.16 Conditional ↗
FORWARD ALPHA REGISTRY / LIVE SHADOW LAB

CIF v0.21.3

Stop recycling historical holdouts. Freeze hypotheses now, capture only future weekly snapshots, and let 7d / 30d / 90d outcomes mature without backfill.

Registry frozen
2026-08-08
NO HISTORICAL BACKFILL. v0.18 starts a genuinely prospective evidence stream. Early empty or pending results are expected and are part of the validation design.
IMMUTABLE REGISTRY

alpha-forward-registry-v1-2026-08-08

8b5cd9d834ca9b0e…
BNBSOLXRPADADOGELINKAVAXLTCTRXDOTBCHSUI
Snapshot weeks9
Snapshot rows108
Latest week assets12
Calendar weeks since freeze8

Backfill allowed: NO · latest snapshot: 2026-W40 · collector run: success.

PRE-REGISTERED FORWARD HYPOTHESES

Six families, fixed before future outcomes

historical status = context only
Volume-Price Thrust 7D × BTC Risk-Onvolume_price_interaction · risk_on

v0.16 confirmed; v0.17 second confirmation failed

volume_price_thrust_7d · higher_is_better
Volatility Compression 20v90 × BTC Risk-Offvolatility_structure · risk_off

v0.15 near-miss; v0.16 not confirmed

vol_compression_20v90 · higher_is_better
RS Persistence 12W × BTC Risk-Onrelative_strength_persistence · risk_on

v0.15 near-miss; v0.16 not confirmed

relative_strength_persistence_12w · higher_is_better
Trend Efficiency 60D × BTC Risk-Ontrend_quality · risk_on

v0.16 not confirmed

trend_efficiency_60d · higher_is_better
Drawdown Recovery Velocity × BTC Risk-Ondrawdown_recovery · risk_on

v0.16 not confirmed

recovery_velocity_20d · higher_is_better
Market Breadth EMA50 × BTC Risk-Onmarket_breadth · risk_on

v0.16 not confirmed

market_breadth_ema50 · higher_is_better
OUTCOME MATURITY

Nothing is scored before its full horizon exists

7d / 30d / 90d
7d outcomesfull-horizon only

96 mature · 12 pending

30d outcomesfull-horizon only

60 mature · 48 pending

90d outcomesfull-horizon only

0 mature · 108 pending

FORWARD EVALUATION

Current prospective evidence

FORWARD_EVALUATION_ACTIVE
Hypothesis7d target ρ30d target ρ90d target ρ30d Δ interactionStatus
Volume-Price Thrust 7D × BTC Risk-Onvolume_price_interaction——— +assets——— +ΔINSUFFICIENT_FORWARD_DATA
Volatility Compression 20v90 × BTC Risk-Offvolatility_structure——— +assets——— +ΔINSUFFICIENT_FORWARD_DATA
RS Persistence 12W × BTC Risk-Onrelative_strength_persistence——— +assets——— +ΔINSUFFICIENT_FORWARD_DATA
Trend Efficiency 60D × BTC Risk-Ontrend_quality——— +assets——— +ΔINSUFFICIENT_FORWARD_DATA
Drawdown Recovery Velocity × BTC Risk-Ondrawdown_recovery——— +assets——— +ΔINSUFFICIENT_FORWARD_DATA
Market Breadth EMA50 × BTC Risk-Onmarket_breadth——— +assets——— +ΔINSUFFICIENT_FORWARD_DATA
LATEST WEEKLY SNAPSHOT

What is frozen right now?

2026-W40
AssetRegimeEntryVolume thrustVol compressionRS persistence
ADArisk_on0.247300.014-0.0400.500
AVAXrisk_on10.61600-0.103-0.6180.250
BCHrisk_on310.400000.661-0.4750.500
BNBrisk_on763.96000-0.041-0.0840.500
DOGErisk_on0.09396-0.097-0.3320.417
DOTrisk_on1.18200-0.029-0.3010.333
LINKrisk_on15.452000.330-0.2330.583
LTCrisk_on69.240000.344-0.4760.417
SOLrisk_on118.89000-0.000-0.2610.500
SUIrisk_on1.167700.238-0.5580.417
TRXrisk_on0.33560-0.0270.2210.417
XRPrisk_on1.49680-0.040-0.1860.417
ARCHITECTURE FIREWALL

Forward evidence must earn the next architecture

BLOCKED
Forward-supported interactions0≥ 2
Distinct families0≥ 2
Architecture eligibleNO
Production readyNO
FORWARD-ONLY FIREWALL

What v0.18 is allowed to conclude